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Pada 2016, ahli geodesi Australia Achraff Koulali memublikasikan temuannya tentang sesar Baribis aktif yang membentang sepanjang 25 kilometer di selatan Jakarta. Temuan ini dipublikasikan di jurnal internasional Elsevier.
Sesar ini disebut melintang dari Purwakarta, Cibatu-Bekasi, Tangerang, dan Rangkasbitung. Jika ditarik garis lurus dari Cibatu ke Tangerang, sesar Baribis diprediksi melewati beberapa kecamatan di Jakarta.
Sebelum studi dilakukan oleh Achraff, bukti sejarah mencatat adanya gempa besar yang mengguncang Jakarta pada 5 Januari 1699 sekitar pukul 01.30 WIB.
Menurut catatan data gempa yang dibuat profesor geologi asal Jerman, Arthur Wichman, gempa besar di tahun itu merusak 40 bangunan, termasuk bangunan Hindia belanda yang kokoh, seperti Istana Daendels.
Dalam diskusi berjatuk "Gempa Bumi Megathrust M 8,7: Siapkah Jakarta?" yang diadakan akhir Februari 2018, Kepala Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) Dwikorita Karnawati menyebut gempa itu diduga disebabkan oleh sesar Baribis yang melintasi Jakarta.
Dalam kesempatan yang sama, Dekan Fakultas Teknik Pertambangan dan Perminyakan Institut Teknologi Bandung (FTTM ITB) Sri Widiyantoro mengatakan, sesar Baribis masih menjadi perdebatan dan perlu dibuktikan dengan penelitian di lapangan.
"Memang ada studi yang mengindikasikan Sesar Baribis mengarah ke Jakarta. Kami dari tim nasional mencoba mencari bukti di lapangan. Di lapangan belum terlalu jelas," ungkap Widiyantoro.
Kepala Bidang Informasi gempa bumi dan Peringatan Dini Tsunami BMKG, Daryono, mengungkap bahwa sesar Baribis diduga merentang dari Purwakarta, mengarah ke barat, tetapi tertimbun material sedimen.
"Dugaan itu harus kami buktikan dengan monitoring micro earthquake," katanya.
Meski demikian, ia menilai bahwa sumber gempa Jakarta tahun 1699 sangat dekat dengan Jakarta.
"Gempa 1699 itu sangat lokal. Hanya Jakarta saja yang rusak. Artinya, sumbernya ya dekat situ," ungkapnya.
Masih misteri
Sependapat dengan Widiyantoro, Rovicky Dwi Putrohari yang juga ahli geologi dan anggota Ikatan Ahli Geologi Indonesia (IAGI) mengatakan keberadaan patahan sesar Baribis masih dalam tahap dugaan.
"Adanya sesar Baribis ini dibuat dengan penelitian geodetik yang sangat bagus. Kemudian digabungkan dengan penelitian gempa-gempa masa lalu, termasuk gempa zaman kolonial. Tapi keberadaannya masih dalam tahap dugaan karena patahannya di bawah tanah yang sampai saat ini belum dapat dipastikan," ujarnya kepada Kompas.com saat dihubungi Rabu (3/10/2018).
Ia juga menganjurkan untuk diadakan penelitian lebih lanjut terkait sesar Baribis untuk mengetahui keberadaannya dengan lebih jelas.
"Dan kemudian kalau dapat dipastikan keberadaannya dengan data-data yang lain, perlu dilihat apakah aktif atau tidak," imbuhnya.
Melihat catatan gempa besar di sekitar Jakarta pada zaman kolonial 1700-an, Rovicky menegaskan dibutuhkannya pembuktian atas dugaan bahwa gempa itu disebabkan oleh sesar Baribis. Sebab, bukan tidak mungkin gempa besar itu dipicu oleh sesar aktif lain.
"Mungkin saja, wong saat itu kita belum tahu genesa (pembentukan) terjadinya gempa. Sebagai informasi, teori plate tektonik yang saat ini dipakai untuk menganalisis gempa baru diketahui tahun 1950-an. Jadi saat itu (tahun 1700-an), gempa-gempa ini masih dianggap misteri," jelasnya.
Sebagai tambahan, menurut penelitian Koulali, patahan diperkirakan menyebabkan gempa skala 7 dalam periode 600 tahun.
"Jadi kalau misalnya gempa terakhir tahun 1800, maka gempa berikutnya masih lama, masih 400 tahun lagi. Ini kalau penelitian itu benar ya," tambahnya.
Adrin Tohari, peneliti bidang Geoteknik Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia (LIPI), juga berkata bahwa sumber gempa besar yang pernah mengguncang Jakarta sekitar tahun 1700-an belum teridentifikasi.
"Menurut sejarah, memang Batavia pernah hancur karena gempa besar. Namun, hingga saat ini belum tahu sumber gempanya dari mana. Bisa saja dari laut di Sumatra, kita belum tahu (kebenarannya). Walaupun dalam penelitian ada pelurusan struktur di bawah Jakarta, tapi kita belum dapat memastikan itu aktif atau enggak," ujarnya kepada Kompas.com, Rabu (3/10/2018).
"Jadi hingga saat ini belum dapat dipastikan, apakah sesar yang menurut penelitian merupakan sesar aktif atau hanya tektonik saja. Karena dia (sesar) tertimbun material yang tebal sehingga tidak muncul ke permukaan. Nah, kalau sesar aktif, dia harus muncul ke permukaan," terang Adrin.
